3M Open 1라운드에 대해 뭐라고 말해야 할까? 한 마디로, Ben Kohles! 초반에는 TPC Twin Cities가 예상보다 어렵게 플레이될 것이라는 느낌이 있었다. 우승 스코어가 20대 중반보다는 14~15언더에 더 가까울 수도 있다는 생각도 들었다.
그렇다면 필드 평균은 0.96언더로 마무리되었고, Kohles는 시즌의 가장 remarkable한 오프닝 라운드 중 하나를 선사했다.
Kohles는 9언더 62를 쳤으며, 솔직히 따분해 보였다. 그런데 그것이 정확히 우리가 원하는 것이다. Boring golf. 페어웨이를 치고, 그린을 짚고, 불필요한 드라마를 피하는 것.
Kohles의 62가 특별했던 이유? 그는 14 중 12개의 페어웨이와 18 중 17개의 그린을 짚었다. 또한 240야드 이상에서 18번 홀로의 어프로치를 10피트 이내로 붙여 사실상 짐메 이글을 만들었다.
01대회의 판도와 주변 경쟁자들
Kohles가 John Deere Classic에서의 형편없는 마무리에서 반등한 것은 좋다. 그럼에도 불구하고 Emiliano Grillo, Jackson Koivun, Gary Woodland로부터 2 샷 리드를 유지하고 있으며, 이 토너먼트는 아직 멀었다. 리드 5 샷 이내에 대략 25명의 선수들이 포진해 있다. 특히 주목할 점은 Scottie Scheffler가 단 3 샷 뒤에 있다는 것이다.
02브레넌, 드라이빙 강점의 톱 20 도전
Michael Brennan을 톱 20에 진입할 선수로 평가하는 이유를 설명하자면, 이번 시즌 19경기 중 단 5.3%에서만 톱 20을 달성했는데 왜 가치가 있는가 하는 질문이 나올 것이다.
답은 Brennan이 짧은 경력에서 성공을 거둔 곳들의 패턴에 있다. 그는 Bank of Utah Championship에서 우승했는데, 이는 티에서의 분리와 장거리 히터에게 어드밴티지를 주는 코스다. 2025년 Butterfield Bermuda Championship에서는 T18을 기록했고, 이것도 드라이빙 강점의 선수에게 어드밴티지를 주는 코스다. 또한 Puerto Rico에서 T26을 추가했으며, 역시 티에서의 강력함을 보상하는 코스였다.
시즌 유일의 톱 10은 Colonial Country Club에서의 Charles Schwab Challenge에서 나왔다. Colonial은 어려운 드라이빙 코스이며, 페어웨이 히팅이 까다롭다. 다만 러프가 심하지 않아 티에서의 강력함을 과시할 수 있는 선수는 성공할 수 있다.
이것은 이번 주와 크게 다르지 않다. TPC Twin Cities의 페어웨이는 더 관대하고 그린은 훨씬 크지만, 역사적으로 골프의 최고 드라이버들을 선호해온 코스다.
Brennan은 또한 fantastic한 오프닝 라운드를 기록했다. 6언더를 쳤으며 필드에서 2위의 볼 스트라이킹 성적을 거두고 +5.55 스트록을 얻었다. 어프로치는 우수했으며, 그린 주변에서만 스트록을 잃었다.
시즌 내내 그의 가장 큰 문제는 퍼팅이었지만, 목요일에는 희망적인 신호가 있었다. Brennan은 오프닝 라운드에서 퍼팅에서 +0.49 스트록을 얻었다. 이것을 유지할 수 있다면, 톱 10은 물론이고 이 토너먼트를 우승할 수도 있다.
03호이 vs 휴즈, 매치업의 역설
명확히 하자면, Rico Hoey는 Mackenzie Hughes로부터 4 샷 앞서 있으며, 그래서 Hoey가 이 72홀 매치업에서 -440으로 책정되는 데 이유가 있다.
하지만 최근 경기들에서 Hoey의 패턴이 눈에 띈다. 그는 빠르게 출발해 오프닝 라운드에서 스트록을 얻고는 곧 무너진다. Corales Puntacana에서 1라운드는 gained, 2-3라운드는 lost. John Deere Classic에서 1라운드 gain, 2라운드 rough, 결국 컷 미스. RBC Canadian Open에서도 1라운드 gain, 금요일 fade, 위켄드 미스.
그의 게임에는 극심한 변동성이 있다. Hoey가 드라이버로 lights-out이 될 것은 알지만, 아이언 플레이는 충분하지 않다. 지난 시즌 브룸스틱 퍼터로 전환하면서 퍼팅 문제를 고쳤다는 느낌도 있었지만, 이제 바퀴가 완전히 벗겨졌다. 다시 그린에서 머리를 긁고 있다.
Hoey는 지난 4경기에서 퍼팅 스트록을 얻지 못했으며, 이미 3M Open을 퍼팅 loss로 시작했다.
Hughes는 엘리트 볼 스트라이커가 아니다. 페어웨이 히팅율이 약 53% 정도이며, 극단적인 거리로 자신을 분리하지 못한다. 하지만 Hughes는 게이머다. 일관되게 볼 스트라이킹 문제를 뛰어난 퍼팅으로 극복해왔다.
그의 성적들을 보라. Hughes는 Corales에서 T20, Charles Schwab과 다른 대회에서 톱 10을 거두었다. 모든 대회에서 어프로치에서 스트록을 잃었지만, 대부분의 성공은 퍼팅이 주도했다.
이것이 나를 강력하게 움직이는 데이터 프로필인가? 아니다. 이것은 좋은 배당에서 Hoey를 페이드하는 작은 시도다. 더 palatble한 선택지를 원한다면, Jake Knapp at -108 vs Keith Mitchell을 봐라.
04Original (English) — PGA TOUR
I honestly don't know what to say about the first round of the 3M Open other than wow, Ben Kohles!
Early in the opening round, there was a sense that TPC Twin Cities might play a little more difficult than expected. Maybe we would see a winning score closer to 14- or 15-under rather than somewhere in the mid-20s. For a little while, it seemed like that could be the case.
Then the scoring average finished at 0.96 strokes under par, and Kohles delivered one of the most remarkable opening rounds of the season.
Kohles fired a 9-under 62, and honestly, it felt kind of boring. But that is exactly what you want. You want boring golf. You want to hit fairways, hit greens, and stay away from any unnecessary drama.
So, what made Kohles' 62 so special? He hit 12 of 14 fairways and 17 of 18 greens. He also stuck his approach from more than 240 yards to inside 10 feet on the 18th hole, setting up what was essentially a gimme eagle.
It was good to see Kohles (+700 to win at DraftKings Sportsbook) bounce back after a brutal closing stretch at the John Deere Classic. Even with a two-stroke lead over Emiliano Grillo (+2000), Jackson Koivun (+950), and Gary Woodland (+1600), this tournament is far from over. There are roughly 25 golfers within five strokes of the lead. Most notably, Scottie Scheffler (+150) is just three strokes back.
This is totally anecdotal, but whenever someone grabs the first-round lead by shooting a number close to 60, my first instinct is to fade them the following day. Kohles is classically the type of golfer I would look to fade, but I'm not entirely sure how I want to attack that just yet.
For now, I'll look for some other opportunities in the Draws and Fades section. Just know that in the back of my mind, I want to fade Kohles because I don't believe he can replicate that level of success in consecutive rounds.
Michael Brennan Top 10 (+176) | Top 20 (-138)
The Top-20 price really comes down to your tolerance for juice. There are plenty of sports bettors who don't want to lay a number like -138. They would rather risk a smaller amount for a bigger return, which is completely understandable and makes the Top 10, or even the Top 5, a viable option.
Still, the main bet for Brennan should be Top 20 because of the value this number possesses.
How can I sit here and say there is value on a golfer to finish inside the Top 20 when he has only done it in 5.3% of his 19 starts this season? It comes down to where Brennan has historically found success during his short career.
He won the Bank of Utah Championship at a golf course that creates separation off the tee and gives longer hitters an advantage. He finished T18 at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship in 2025, another venue that gives a significant advantage to strong drivers of the golf ball. He also added a T26 earlier this season in Puerto Rico at another course that rewards players who can separate off the tee.
His lone top-10 finish of the season came at the Charles Schwab Challenge, which is played at Colonial Country Club. For those unfamiliar with Colonial, it is a demanding driving course with difficult fairways to hit. The rough isn't overly thick, however, so players who can dominate off the tee can still find plenty of success.
That is not all that different from what we are seeing this week. The fairways at TPC Twin Cities are more generous, and the greens are much bigger, but this is still a golf course that has historically favored some of the best drivers of the ball.
Brennan also put together a fantastic opening round, shooting 6-under while ranking second in the field in ball-striking and gaining +5.55 strokes. His approach play was excellent, and the only area where he lost strokes was around the green.
His biggest issue all season has been the putter, but there were some promising signs Thursday. Brennan gained +0.49 strokes putting in the opening round. If he can keep that up, he might not only finish inside the Top 10. He could win this tournament.
Tournament Matchup: Mackenzie Hughes (+310) over Rico Hoey
Let's be very clear about something. Rico Hoey has a four-stroke lead over Mackenzie Hughes, so there is a reason Hoey is now priced at -440 to win this 72-hole matchup.
Still, I have noticed a trend with Hoey over his past few events. He has come out of the gates fast, gaining strokes in the opening round, and then falls apart shortly afterward.
At the Corales Puntacana Championship, Hoey gained strokes on the field in the first round before losing strokes in both the second and third rounds. At the John Deere Classic, he gained strokes in the opening round before a rough second round and he ultimately missed the cut. At the RBC Canadian Open, he once again gained strokes in the first round before fading Friday and missing the weekend.
There is just so much volatility in his game.
You know Hoey is going to be lights-out with the driver, but his iron play has not been good enough. There was also a stretch last season when it looked like he had fixed some of his putting issues after switching to the broomstick putter. Now, the wheels have officially come off. And he's back to scratching his head on the greens.
Hoey has not gained strokes putting in any of his past four starts, and he already opened the 3M by losing strokes with the flat stick.
Hughes is not an elite ball-striker. He only hits about 53% of his fairways and doesn't separate himself with extreme distance. But Hughes is a gamer. He has consistently found ways to overcome his ball-striking issues with an excellent putter.
Just look at some of his results. Hughes finished T20 at the Corales Puntacana Championship and posted a pair of Top 10s, including one at the Charles Schwab Challenge. He lost strokes on approach in all three of those events, and most of that success was heavily driven by the flat stick.
Is this the type of data profile that has me running to the window and dropping the 401(k)? Absolutely not.
This is a small stab at a big price to fade Hoey at a number I don't agree with. For something a little more palatable, take a look at Jake Knapp at -108 to finish higher than Keith Mitchell.
That bet is less of a long shot, but also isn't quite as fun!
