BMW Championship은 FedExCup Playoffs 2번째 라운드다. 수비 챔피언 스코티 셰플러는 지난주 8타 차 우승으로 자신의 의도를 명확히 드러냈다. 세인트루이스 벨리브 컨트리클럽에서는 아직 톱 30 자리를 확보하지 못한 선수들에게 다음 주 애틀란타 TOUR Championship 진출 기회를 준다.
지난주 멤피스에서 셰플러는 필드를 압도했고, Si Woo Kim을 단독 2위에 두고 우승했다. 셰플러가 풀 파워로 작동하고 있다고 믿는다면 몇 가지 배팅이 흥미롭다.
상위권 후보 중 많은 이들이 샘 번스에 집중하지만, 루드비그 오베르그를 선택한다. 지난주 3라운드를 60대에서 기록했으나 3라운드 74만 경쟁을 떨어뜨렸다. 벨리브의 추가 야드는 그의 정밀한 롱아이언 게임에 딱 맞으며, Birdie Average에서 6위를 차지할 정도로 버디를 많이 만든다.
오베르그와 같은 2회 우승자 Ryo Hisatsune Kitayama도 도전할 수 있다. 그는 SG: Off-the-Tee 31위, SG: Approach-the-Green 10위로 벨리브 같은 낯선 레이아웃에서 유리하다. 그린 적중이 주요 능력이며, 주변 퍼팅이 문제일 수 있다. 다행히 Bogey Avoidance에서 31위다.
샘 번스는 달의 출산 이후 집 돈으로 플레이하고 있다. Royal Birkdale에 마지막 순간에 도착했지만 54홀 리더가 되어 거의 우승했다(T3). 미국으로 돌아온 그는 멤피스에서 3라운드 62를 기록해 셰플러와의 최종 그룹에 들었고, T3으로 마무리했다. 최근 4경기 중 3경기에서 톱3 피니시를 기록했다. BMW Championship의 공격적 플레이는 "Without Scheffler" 마켓에 그를 투자하는 것이다.
지난주 멤피스에서 Sungjae Im (+495)로 좋은 수익을 올렸고, 이번주 같은 전략으로 30번째 시드 Rickie Fowler를 선택한다. 6회 우승자인 그는 2023년 디트로이트 우승 이후 못 이겼으며, 20명의 선수가 애틀란타 톱 30의 마지막 자리를 놓고 추격 중이다. 그가 톱 30에 들어가면 모든 선수와 함께 2027 메이저 토너먼트 전 경기에 자동 초대받는다. 올시즌 톱10 6번째 피니시가 우승표가 될 것이며, 올시즌 Signature Event와 Playoffs 중 5번째가 될 것이다. 최근 5경기 연속 66 이하를 기록 중이다.
양 배당금을 위해 Nico Echavarria처럼 톱 40의 장거리 샷이 필요하다. 50명 중 42위인 그는 Cognizant Classic 우승자이며, 지난주 멤피스에서 T12, 그 전주 Wyndham Championship에서 T12를 기록했다. 이 조합에 열기가 많고, 뒤쳐진 선수도 무가치하지 않다.
잔더 샤우펠레는 최근 3경기에서 T18-2위-T7의 추세를 보이고 있으며, Kim은 우승 없이 올시즌 최고 성적(11개 톱10)을 올리고 있다. 지난 4경기 중 3경기에서 톱10을 기록했다. T20 이상만 필요하다.
2018 PGA Championship 이후 벨리브로 돌아온 17명 중 흥미롭게도 모든 18 그린이 다시 자라고 재건되었으므로, 이전 퍼팅 서피스 지식은 무용지물이다. BMW Championship의 과거 우승 스코어는 27언더(Caves Valley 2022)에서 4언더(Olympia Fields 2020)까지 다양했다. 지난 4년 Caves Valley(셰플러 15언더) 및 Olympia Fields(호블란드 17언더) 재방문을 포함해도 18언더를 넘는 우승 스코어는 없었다. 북풍이 예보되고 메이저 이후의 코스 수정을 고려하면, par-70 레이아웃의 posted total에서 over를 선택한다.
01Original (English) — PGA TOUR
The BMW Championship is the second of three legs in the FedExCup Playoffs. The defending champion, Scottie Scheffler, sent a loud and clear message last week, announcing his intention to add another FedExCup championship to his mantle. Bellerive Country Club in St. Louis provides four more rounds to book a final place inside the top 30 for those on the outside looking in to qualify for the TOUR Championship in Atlanta next week.
DraftKings Sportsbook has plenty of prop markets to get involved, so let's dive in!
(Editor's Note: For more expert betting picks, fantasy advice and event previews, visit DraftKings Network.)
Let's try this again. Scheffler, who ran away from the field on Sunday to win by eight shots last week in Memphis, left Si Woo Kim solo second. If you believe, as I do, that Scheffler has found top gear and will not be looking back, there are a couple of plays I like in this market.
Of the top choices, many will turn to Sam Burns, but I am backing Åberg. Posting three rounds in the 60s last week, only a third-round 74 knocked him out of contention. The extra yardage on the scorecard fits his precise long-iron game perfectly, and not many make more birdies (sixth in Birdie Average).
Kitayama, a two-time TOUR winner like Åberg, can also give it a ride. He ranks 31st in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and 10th in SG: Approach-the-Green, two excellent metrics to sort out on an unfamiliar Bellerive layout. Racking up greens in regulation is his calling card. Paying them off with a marginal putter is why this number is where it is. The good news is that he ranks 31st in Bogey Avoidance. Live to fight another day.
He will be one of the few players disappointed by the weather forecast at the BMW Championship. The normally insufferable summer heat in St. Louis shifts to temperatures in the 80s. The winds from the north will blow out the stagnant, thick river air. Since the birth of his daughter before The Open, Burns has been playing with house money. His arrival at Royal Birkdale was last minute, and he ended up leading after 54 holes, nearly winning the event (T3). Returning to the United States, he shot a third-round 62 in Memphis to earn a spot in the final group with his buddy, Scheffler. Finishing T3, he cashed a check in the top three in three of his last four starts on TOUR. The aggressive play would be to play him in the "Without Scheffler" market. I can live in this space.
I had a nice hit in this space last week with Sungjae Im (+495) in Memphis, and I am running it back this week with No. 30. The six-time winner, who last won in 2023 in Detroit, is being chased by 20 guys looking to take his 30th and final ticket for Atlanta. Fowler, like the rest of the field this week, has already qualified for the Signature Events in 2027. Booking his place in the top 30 would qualify him and the 29 others for every major event next season. His sixth top-10 payday of the season would result in a winning ticket and would be his fifth from a Signature or FedExCup Playoff event. He enters the week with a round of 66 or better in five consecutive events.
To have this exercise pay plus-money, I needed one of the longer shots in the Top 40 category. Nico Echavarria, ranked 42nd of 50 players this week, is the man for the job. The winner of the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches earlier this season, Echavarria arrives at the par-70, 7,448-yard layout fresh off a T12 payday last week in Memphis, preceded by another T12 paycheck at the Wyndham Championship the week before. There is plenty of heat in this threesome, and the guy pulling up the rear is not dead weight.
Schauffele is on a run of T18-second-T7 in his last three on TOUR and Kim, the runner-up last week in Memphis, is having the best season of his career, 11 top-10 paydays, even without a victory. He racked up three of those 11 paydays in his last four starts. I only need T20 or better this week.
According to Rob Bolton, 17 players who teed it up at the 2018 PGA Championship are returning to Bellerive Country Club. All 18 greens have been regrassed and rebuilt since the best players in the world have visited, so any course knowledge on the putting surfaces is out the window. Over the years, the BMW Championship has produced winning totals of 27 under (Caves Valley 2022) to 4 under (Olympia Fields 2020). The last four years, including return visits to Caves Valley (Scottie Scheffler, 15) and Olympia Fields (Viktor Hovland, 17 under), have not produced a winning total better than 18 under. With blustery conditions in the forecast, plus the modifications made after a major championship, I will play over the posted total for the par-70 layout.
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