페덱스컵 플레이오프에 70명의 선수가 최종 진출했다. 올 시즌 가장 뛰어난 선수들이 3주간의 격렬한 경쟁을 벌일 예정이며, 첫 번째 무대는 TPC Southwind에서의 FedEx St. Jude Championship이다.
01TPC Southwind의 특성
이번 주 경쟁의 핵심은 정확한 드라이브와 보기 회피다. TPC Southwind는 러프에서의 페널티가 +0.50스트로크로 시즌 중 가장 높은 수준이다. 따라서 페어웨이를 찾는 것과 보기를 피하는 것이 가장 중요하다. 스코어는 하루에 며칠 이언더 정도가 경쟁력을 갖출 것으로 예상된다.
02주목할 선수들
코레이 커너스는 올 시즌 자신의 기준으로는 부진 중이지만, 최근 6경기에서 +1.22스트로크/라운드를 기록했다. 매 경기 66% 이상의 페어웨이를 찾고 있으며, TPC Southwind에서는 9번 플레이했고 2023년 공동 6위가 최고 성적이다. 톱20 마켓에서 +225의 오즈를 받았다.
루드빅 오버그는 오픈 챔피언십 이후 쉬고 있으며, 로열 버킷데일에서 공동 9위를 기록했다. TPC Southwind에서는 2경기 기록으로 2024년 공동 40위, 2025년 공동 9위의 성적을 남겼다. 정확한 드라이빙과 장거리 샷이 이 코스에 완벽하게 어울린다. 톱10 마켓 오즈 +190이 매력적이다.
샘 번스는 올 시즌 우승 없이 세계 최고 수준의 플레이를 펼치고 있다. 평균 +1.28스트로크/라운드를 기록했으며, 최근 5경기에서 톱5 3회를 포함 톱20을 벗지 못했다. 특히 아이언 게임이 소거지 같아 최근 20라운드에서 어프로치에서만 +24.27스트로크를 거뒀다. TPC Southwind 경력에서도 어프로치에서 단 한 번도 손해를 보지 않았다. 톱5 마켓 오즈 +335은 충분히 매력적이다.
03마츠야마, 최고의 조건
히데키 마츠야마가 현재 최고의 상태로 자신의 게임이 가장 잘 맞는 코스에 간다. 최근 5경기는 완벽한 통계표를 자랑한다. 모두 톱15 피니시를 거뒀고, 그 중 2경기는 톱5까지 올라갔다.
마츠야마의 최근 폼을 이끈 것은 드라이빙 정확도의 향상이다. 이는 그가 자신의 가장 강력한 무기인 아이언 플레이에 집중할 수 있게 해준다. 마츠야마는 짧은 잔디에서 정확한 거리의 아이언 샷을 날릴 때 진정으로 위험해진다.
TPC Southwind에서의 마츠야마의 최근 5번의 방문을 보면 어프로치에서 무려 +24.85스트로크를 기록했다. 라운드당 1.5 이상의 스트로크 이득을 거둔 것이다. 이 기간 톱20을 5번 기록했고, 우승 1회와 공동 2위 1회가 포함됐다.
마츠야마 같이 뜨거운 폼을 유지할 수 있는 선수는 드물며, 그는 골프계의 큰 무대에서 우승을 거두는 엘리트 선수임이 증명됐다. 이 모든 이유로 마츠야마를 FedEx St. Jude Championship 우승자로 선택한다. 현재 오즈는 +3300이다.
04Original (English) — PGA TOUR
We are down to just 70 players who have qualified for the PGA TOUR's FedExCup Playoffs, giving us the best players on TOUR this year battling it out over a three-week run. TPC Southwind will play host to the first leg – this week's FedEx St. Jude Championship.
There are no weak spots in this field, as everyone teeing it up this week has earned it through their play on the course this season. The TOUR's best will battle at a familiar course in TPC Southwind, which has been a staple on the schedule for many years.
The two main objectives will be to find the fairway and avoid making bogey. If players can do both of those things, they will be in prime position to contend over the weekend. Finding the fairway is crucial, as TPC Southwind boasts a +0.50-stroke penalty for shots from the rough, one of the higher penalties on the schedule. That, of course, relates to the importance of avoiding bogeys. The winning score will almost certainly be held in check, with a few shots under par each day being good enough to contend. With that knowledge and plenty of course data, we can compile a solid card for this week.
By his own lofty standards, this is the worst statistical season for Corey Conners since becoming a full-time PGA TOUR pro in 2017. He's gaining "only" +0.20 strokes per round this season, which is well off his career baseline. However, his play recently has started to look more like that long-term DNA we would expect to see from Conners. Over his last six starts, he's gained 1.22 strokes per round, and that's resulted in some of his best finishes of the campaign.
During this run, Conners has hit at least 66% of his fairways in every event, and he continues to beat his peers significantly on the second shot. It's been a mixed bag of results for Conners at TPC Southwind in his career, but he has plenty of experience. He's played here nine times, with 2023 being his highlight – a T6 finish at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Conners is not safe to advance to next week's BMW Championship, so he will need a solid finish this week to extend his season. I'm comfortable deploying him in the top-20 market, where his odds are +225 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
We haven't seen Ludvig Åberg tee it up since the Open Championship, where he finished T9, so he will enter this week well-rested for what is likely to be a deep run into the FedExCup Playoffs. His performance at Royal Birkdale was vintage Åberg, as he gained more than seven strokes from tee to green. He's gained at least seven strokes from tee to green in eight of his 17 starts this year, proving that he's elite in the category.
He's only played at TPC Southwind twice in his career, finishing T40 in 2024 and T9 last year. His skill set should play perfectly at this venue, considering how long and straight he is off the tee. When Åberg has his best stuff, he's a contender, which is why I feel his top-10 market (+190) is worth consideration for this week.
It's fairly obvious that Sam Burns has been the best player in the world this year without a victory. He's gaining a stout 1.28 strokes per round over 62 rounds, and his recent play is even better than that. In his last five alone, he's racked up three top-five finishes and hasn't finished outside the top 20. His iron play is scorching hot right now. Over those 20 rounds, Burns has gained a staggering 24.27 strokes on approach alone.
Those stat lines look very similar to what he's done at TPC Southwind in his career. In six trips, he's never lost strokes on approach here, and he's gained more than five strokes putting in three of his last five visits. The ability to be elite on both approach and putting is a seriously high-upside combination. That's why you're seeing Burns routinely in the mix late in events this summer. Thanks to his recent play and course history, I believe he'll be in the mix again this week. I'm clicking his name to finish inside the top five, which is currently being priced at +335.
We are getting one of the hottest players on the planet heading to one of the best courses for his game, so obviously he's going to be my pick to win. That man, of course, is Hideki Matsuyama. His last five starts couldn't look any better on the stat sheet. The results are excellent, all top-15s, with two top-fives as well. His improvement off the tee has been the catalyst for this uptick in finishing positions, and it's allowing him to lean into the real strength of his game – iron play.
Matsuyama becomes dangerous when he's playing out of the short grass with a look at the pin. There is truly no flatstick that feels safe in this scenario. That couldn't be any more true as he takes aim at TPC Southwind this week. In his last five trips to Memphis, Matsuyama has gained a robust 24.85 strokes on approach. That's more than 1.5 strokes per round in just one facet of the game. It should come as no surprise that he's earned five top-20 finishes in that stretch, with a win and T2 to help boost the resume.
Very few golfers can get as hot as Matsuyama, who has proven to be an elite winner in some of the game's biggest events. For all of these reasons, he's my pick to win the FedEx St. Jude Championship at +3300.
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