영국의 여름은 특별하다. 이 날 우리는 15시간 동안 골프를 쳤다. Royal Birkdale의 첫 라운드가 펼쳐졌다.
01맥일로이의 절망적 퍼팅
Rory McIlroy가 9번홀 par-4 그린을 드라이브로 직접 올렸다. 나는 미디어센터를 뛰쳐나가 그의 이글 가능성을 보러 갔다.
50피트 퍼트에서 McIlroy는 볼을 3피트까지 끌어다놨다. 보통 탭인 버디다. 하지만 McIlroy의 표정은 다았다. 그는 7번홀에서 4피터를 놓쳤고, 8번홀에서도 4피터 버디를 놓쳤다. 그는 또 다른 숏 미스를 할 수 없었다.
초반 여러 퍼트가 한 방향으로 굴러갈 것 같았는데 다른 방향으로 갔어. 그 다음엔 그 위에 있으니까 공이 원하는 대로 할 거라고 믿기 정말 어렵다. 그래서 스트로크를 그렇게 집중 있게 못 하는 것 같고, 자꾸만 4피터를 남기게 되는 거다로리 맥일로이
10번홀에서 McIlroy는 절망을 드러냈다. 그린 왼쪽 경사로에서 친 퍼트가 계속 굴러갔다. "Sit, sit, sit"이라고 외쳤다. 공은 4피트까지 굴러갔다. 또 다른 미스. 또 다른 보기. McIlroy는 15초 동안 구멍을 응시했다.
02충격: 맥일로이의 랭킹 148위
The Open Championship의 첫 라운드는 대부분 예상대로 진행됐다. 딱딱하고 빠른 그린이 재미있는 선택지를 만들었고, 약한 바람에도 스코어를 제한했다. Scottie Scheffler는 잘 쳤다. Cameron Young과 Collin Morikawa 같은 별들도 마찬가지였다.
하지만 한 가지 충격이 있었다. McIlroy와 그의 퍼터가 안 보였다.
필드 148위의 퍼팅 순위. 그린에서 3타를 손실했다. 최종 스코어 2오버로 8위 공동. 메이저만 보면 McIlroy는 최근 18경 중 15경에서 퍼팅 스트로크 게인을 기록했다. 부진한 3경 중 2경은 컷 탈락으로 이어졌다(나머지 1경은 우승했다 — 2025 Masters).
McIlroy는 단 주간이 될 위험에 처해 있다. 이는 첫 날의 최대 충격이었다.
03리더보드를 읽는 법: 퍼팅 vs 스윙
메이저의 첫 18홀 후 우리는 그 날을 과대평가하는 경향이 있다. 25%의 토너먼트를 100%처럼 분석한다. 한 해의 가장 큰 경기이기 때문이다.
누가 리더보드에서 유지될까, 누가 하락할까를 판단하는 한 가지 방법이 있다. 퍼팅 성과와 스윙 성과의 차이를 보는 것이다.
퍼팅은 매우 변동성이 크고 불일관하다. 어떤 날은 퍼트가 떨어지지 않는다. 반면 스윙 실력은 토너먼트 중 돌릴 수 없다. 있거나 없거나다.
그래서 리더보드에서 올라올 선수를 찾으려면, 스윙은 좋았지만 퍼팅이 안 좋은 선수를 찾아야 한다. Data Golf 스트로크 게인 통계를 쓰면 그 선수들이 빠르게 떠오른다.
반대도 마찬가지다. 리더보드에서 떨어질 위험한 선수는? 퍼터에 의존했던 선수들이다.
04Original (English) — PGA TOUR
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U.K. summers are something. We just played golf for 15 hours. Let's break it down ...
SOUTHPORT, England – Rory McIlroy's pleading reverberated through the dunes, at least far enough that I could hear it.
I had sprung out of the media center when I saw McIlroy drive the par-4 ninth green, figuring that if he was about to make eagle and turn the tide of his day, I wanted to get a taste of the atmosphere. By the time I got there, he was standing over the 50-foot putt and rolled it within 3 feet, a tap-in birdie under most circumstances.
McIlroy was not as convinced. He hung around the putt and, to my eye, lingered over it for a few seconds longer than normal. He had already missed a 4-footer at the seventh for par and a 4-footer for birdie at the eighth. He couldn't afford another short miss.
McIlroy rolled it in for his first birdie of the day, but that moment of indecision was enough to keep me with the group for another hole.
It proved prescient. That's when I heard McIlroy's pleas.
Now just left of the 10th green, McIlroy putted up and over a slope and watched as his ball missed the hole and kept rolling.
"Sit, sit, sit," he called, each command feeling more desperate than the last.
The ball settled 4 feet from the hole. The comeback was devastating. Another miss. Another bogey. McIlroy looked at the hole in stunned amazement for a good 15 seconds before dropping his head and heading off.
"I missed a couple early on that looked like they were going to break one way, and they actually went another way, and then when you get the next one, you're over it, and it's just very hard to trust that the ball is going to do what you think it's going to do," McIlroy said. "Then you maybe don't make quite as committed of a stroke."
"It seems like when it gets like that on a day like today, you just keep leaving yourself 4-footers," he added. "It's tough to get out of that and stay committed to what you're trying to do on the greens."
The first round of The Open Championship largely followed expectations.
The firm, fast conditions created intriguing optionality and limited scoring even with only a breath of wind all morning. Scottie Scheffler played well. Other top stars like Cameron Young and Collin Morikawa did, too. The Open, synonymous with funky first-day leaderboards, followed through with the likes of Jackson Suber, Dan Brown and Francesco Molinari.
The one surprise: McIlroy and his putter didn't show.
He ranked 148th in the field, losing nearly three strokes on the greens and shot 2-over to sit in a tie for eighth.
In his early years, McIlroy's putter often held him back. Those days are mostly gone. Particularly in majors, McIlroy has found his rhythm. It may not be the primary reason he has won, but it certainly hasn't hurt him. He has gained strokes putting in 15 of his last 18 major championship starts. Two of the three poor putting weeks led to his only missed cuts in that timeframe (he won the other one – 2025 Masters – funnily enough).
McIlroy is at risk of a short week here at Royal Birkdale. It was the biggest shock of Day 1.
🌊 Water found its level. Scottie Scheffler is back in contention again after his first missed cut in four years ...
🤠 Looking forward to the world learning more about Dan Brown. Read about his round and watch the video at the top if you enjoy good content ...
🥱 Did you sleep in? Or couldn't pay attention while at work? We provided live updates all day long. A great way to relive the action ...
We tend to get a bit reactionary after the first 18 holes of a major championship, overanalyzing Thursday as if it counts for more than 25% of the tournament. You can chalk it up to the anticipation of one of the biggest events of the year, as we look to confirm or disprove the biases we brought into the tournament.
This is one way to take a deep breath.
As we wonder who might maintain their spot on the leaderboard and who is a candidate for regression (positive or negative), there's a notable clue to look for: The difference in how they putted versus how they struck the ball.
Putting has proven far more variable and inconsistent day to day. Some days, the putts just don't fall. It's much more difficult to turn around your ball-striking mid-tournament. You usually have it, or you don't.
So when looking at who may rise down the board, look for those who struck the ball best and putted poorly. Using Data Golf's strokes gained statistics, those candidates quickly emerged.
The opposite is true, too. Who could be vulnerable to fall down the board? Look at who was bailed out by their putter.
